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Tools for Natural Hazard management in a Changing Climate
Outils de gestion de désastres naturels dans un climat changeant
Rogbeck Y., Löfroth H., Rydell B., Andersson-Sköld Y.
Swedish Geotechnical Institute, Linkoping, Sweden
ABSTRACT: The paper will give an overview of some existing tools and models that can be used for risk analyses due to natural
hazards (landslides, erosion and consequences of flooding) in a changing climate. Tools from several countries have been investigated
by a literature survey and a questionnaire. A more comprehensive tool developed by Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) will be
presented more in detail. A compilation of tools has been carried out in the project “Baltic Climate”, funded by the EU Baltic Sea
Region Programme 2007-2013 and its partners. The investigation shows that there is a general lack of tools for soil movements in the
countries in the Baltic Sea Region and that most of the existing ones don´t take climate change into consideration. The paper will
present a model that can be used separately or as a complement to more general tools for spatial planning. The tool for soil
movements considers the consequences of flooding, landslides and erosion in a changing climate and it can be used on both regional
and local levels. The tool is described as a general method with examples from municipal level. The SGI tool has been used in several
practical cases both on a regional and local level.
RÉSUMÉ: Cet article donne un aperçu de certains des outils et des modèles existants qui peuvent être utilisés pour l’analyses de
risques reliés aux désastres naturels (glissements de terrain, l'érosion et les conséquences des inondations) dans un climat changeant.
Des outils provenant de plusieurs pays ont été étudiés par une étude bibliographique et par questionnaire. Un outil plus complet
développé par l’Institut Suédois de Géotechniquev (SGI) sera présenté plus en détail. Une compilation d'outils a été réalisée dans le
projet «Climat Baltique», financé par le programme de l'UE de la mer Baltique 2007-2013 et de ses partenaires. L'étude montre qu'il y
a un manque général d'outils pour les mouvements du sol et que les outils existants ne prennent pas en compte les changements
climatiques. Cet article présente un modèle qui peut être utilisé séparément ou comme un complément à des outils plus généraux de
l'aménagement du territoire. L'outil des mouvements de sol considère les conséquences d’inondations, de glissements de terrain et de
l'érosion dans un climat changeant et il peut être utilisé au niveau régional ou local. L'outil est décrit comme une méthode générale
avec des exemples au niveau municipal. L'outil SGI a été utilisé dans plusieurs cas pratiques aussi bien au niveau régional que local.
KEYWORDS: tool, natural hazard, landslide, erosion, climate change
1 INTRODUCTION
In order to establish resilient communities, mitigate damages,
adapt the built environment and establish a sustainable society,
there is a need for a sound decision basis for buildings,
infrastructure, industry and the environment. One cornerstone to
reach a sustainable development is to take natural hazards into
account both for the situation today and for the consequences of
climate change. The predictions of global climate change
include sea level rise, in many countries increased precipitation
and runoff and more intense and damaging storms which will
increase the threats of natural hazards.
2 NATURAL HAZARD MODELS IN CLIMATE CHANGE
In this paper tools are presented that can be used in a climate
change adaptation process, with focus on natural hazards such
as landslides erosion and flooding, There are also review of
more general tools, e.g. “The Baltic Climate Toolkit” which
can be used for planning on the regional, local and detailed
level. The main purpose of the toolkit is to highlight the
importance of climate change mitigation and adaptation aspects
in spatial planning [1].
The “The Baltic Climate Toolkit” is developed within the
project Baltic Climate (BC) [1]. Adaptation to the future climate
conditions, including flooding etc. should be one of the starting
points of the planning process proposed in the BC-toolkit.
The comprehensive decision process model described in this
paper focuses on natural hazards such as erosion and landslides
(soil movements). It constitutes a part of the Baltic Climate
project and can be used individually or as complement to the
general toolkit for aspects regarding soil movements. It can be
used for adaptation aspects especially for spatial planning or in
built-up areas to ensure a safe, healthy and sustainable society.
The investigation was done by a questionnaire sent to the
partners and associated organisations in BC complemented by a
brief literature survey.
In addition to the presentation of the decision process model,
a practical application of the model in a municipality is
presented. The investigation constituted a part of the BC
project. According to the results provided by the respondents
several countries have started investigations to identify risks of
natural hazards such as coastal erosion, landslides and flooding,
but the investigations do not always incorporate the effects of
climate change. Furthermore, the investigations are normally
restricted to currently developed areas [1, 2]. The investigation
in the Baltic Sea Region showed that there is a general lack of
tools for soil movements and they don’t consider the impacts of
climate change. However, in Sweden there is a model,
developed by the SGI, which is presented in this paper.
The questionnaire survey of tools/models of soil movements
was also expanded to outside the Baltic Sea Region. A
questionnaire was completed by respondents in France,
Hungary, Italy, Norway, Poland and Slovakia. In all responding
countries models for soil movements are in use. The models
